China's military presence around Taiwan has escalated, according to Taiwan's navy commander, Adm. Tang Hua. In an interview with The Economist, Adm. Hua stated that China is looking for opportunities to justify a blockade of Taiwan by pressuring the island nation and hoping it will make mistakes.
Experts have warned that China could attempt to take Taiwan by force within the next few years, with some speculating a potential invasion by 2027. Concerns about a possible Chinese invasion have been fueled by China's increased military drills and modernization efforts over the past few decades.
Recent updates from Taiwan's defense ministry indicate that Chinese military aircraft, vessels, and ships are operating around Taiwan on a daily basis, sometimes crossing into Taiwanese airspace. This has led to Taiwan scrambling its own planes in response.
While some experts believe that a full-scale invasion of Taiwan is unlikely, they warn that China could engage in aggressive coercion tactics short of war. Such actions could have significant economic repercussions, with estimates suggesting a blockade of Taiwan could result in a $2.7 trillion loss in global economic activity in the first year alone.
In response to the growing threat, Taiwan's military leadership has issued new rules of engagement for self-defense. These rules allow Taiwanese soldiers to launch attacks against legitimate military targets displaying clear hostile acts or intentions, as long as it aligns with the unit's mission and tasks assigned by superiors.
Both Taiwanese and Chinese officials have expressed concerns about the escalating tensions. Taiwan's defense minister, Wellington Koo, warned that it will become increasingly difficult to detect early signs of a potential Chinese attack due to the heightened military activity in the region.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently reiterated China's commitment to achieving "complete reunification" with Taiwan, emphasizing that it is in the nation's best interest and aligns with the desires of the people.